SEPTEMBER 17, 2026 / SETTLED
Josh Allen
First touchdown scorer · Yes
$94.24 cost. $691.08 profit. Review the original receipt and retrospective selection record.
$785.32Settlement payout
View the selection & receipt →THE RESEARCH
SEE WHY
WE LIKE THE PLAY.
Follow the football logic. Review the supporting evidence. Understand which assumptions matter and what would change our view.
CHIEFS–COLTS / SEPTEMBER 20, 2026
Three of four player props hit.
Rice 50+ receiving. Taylor 80+ rushing. Warren anytime TD. All won. Walker anytime TD missed.
Props: 3–1. Our separate KC −5.5 pick lost in the 33–30 overtime win.
SEPTEMBER 17, 2026 / SETTLEMENT NOT SHOWN
Jahmyr Gibbs
30+ receiving yards · Yes
$250 position at a displayed 53¢. The submitted screenshot shows $456.77 “To win”; a settled payout has not been supplied.
View the selection & position →HISTORICAL / SEPTEMBER 13, 2026
Isaiah Likely
2+ touchdowns
WHY WE LIKE THE PLAY
The price: The 2¢ ticket needed roughly a 2.12% chance of winning after estimated entry fees. Our rough calculation put two or more touchdowns at 2.65%.
The reasoning: Pregame reporting pointed to a larger receiving role and a connection with Jaxson Dart. The single kept the selection focused on Likely scoring twice.
What changes our view: At a lower projection of 0.20 touchdowns, the same calculation falls to 1.75%, below the entry break-even.
$6,021.98Settlement payout
Read the full reasoning →HISTORICAL / SEPTEMBER 13, 2026
New York Giants
Giants to win
THE GIANTS THESIS
The price: The supplied Fable thesis estimated a 45–48% chance of a Giants win at an entry around 40.4¢. Its limit: pass at 45¢ or higher.
The reasoning: New York’s proposed path used Dart’s mobility and a run-and-possession approach to shorten the game and limit Dallas’s offense.
What changes our view: A Dallas lead, turnovers, or disrupted drives would challenge New York’s plan to control possession.
$1,217.94Settlement payout
Read the full reasoning →Likely and Giants case studies published after settlement on September 14, 2026.
View historical results →Explore membership →