THE RESEARCH
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FULL CASE.
PickRecon uses OpenAI GPT-6 Astra and Anthropic Claude Fable 5.1 for research and picks. These historical cases pair the recovered Likely recommendation and founder-supplied Fable Giants thesis with settlement receipts. The case studies were published after settlement.
SETTLED / SEPTEMBER 13, 2026
Isaiah Likely
2+ touchdowns
WHY WE PICKED THIS
Original thesis, summarized after settlement
The price: The 2¢ ticket needed roughly a 2.12% chance of winning after estimated entry fees. Our rough calculation put two or more touchdowns at 2.65%.
The opportunity: Pregame reporting pointed to a larger receiving role and a connection with Jaxson Dart. That supported a path to multiple scores.
The decision: Take the long-shot single. Adding a Giants win to the ticket would add another condition. The edge depended heavily on the touchdown estimate.
$6,021.98Winning credit shown
Read the full reasoning →SETTLED / SEPTEMBER 13, 2026
New York Giants
Giants to win
WHY FABLE PICKED THIS
Claude Fable 5.1 · Founder-supplied thesis
The price: The supplied thesis estimated a 45–48% chance of a Giants win at an entry around 40.4¢. The potential edge depended on that estimate being right.
The matchup: Fable’s case was that New York could use Dart’s mobility and a run-and-possession approach to shorten the game and limit Dallas’s offense.
The limit: Pass at 45¢ or higher. Dallas’s offense, coaching changes, and turnover risk could break the case. The founder reports this thesis was generated before kickoff; this summary was added after settlement.
$1,217.94Winning credit shown
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